This Handbook chapter investigates the link between economic development, immigration and terrorism. Roots of international, domestic, and separatist terrorism have been studied using an extensive, multi-country panel data set obtained from Memorial Institute of Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT). Recording the target country and the terrorist’s country of origin augments the data. Each terrorist incident is classified as international, domestic or separatist. Whereas the previous literature has found that terrorism is unrelated to economic conditions, by using a panel data analysis with country fixed effects I find that the richer the country, the fewer the terrorist attacks committed abroad by the country’s nationals. Similarly, nationals from richer countries commit fewer terrorist attacks at home. By building a new data set with regional GDP of separatist regions, I have found that the higher the GDP of the separatist region, the fewer the terrorist attacks committed by native separatists. This chapter also aims to summarize the immigration and terrorism relation in view of this economic literature. Although the literature demonstrates that loopholes in the immigration regulations of the developed world have been used widely by the terrorist organizations in international attacks, immigration itself does not seem to be an important contributor to terrorism.
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John Gibson and David McKenzie
Seasonal worker programs are increasingly seen as offering the potential to be part of international development policy, in addition to the traditional goal of meeting domestic agricultural needs. New Zealand’s Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) program is one of the first and most prominent of programs designed with this perspective. This chapter provides a detailed examination of this policy through the first six seasons. It begins by outlining the background to the launch of the program, and key features of how the program operates in practice. This includes the important role of policy facilitation measures taken by national governments and aid agencies. The evolution of the program in terms of worker numbers is then discussed, along with new data on the (high) degree of circularity in worker movements, and new data on (very low) worker overstay rates. This is followed by a summary of the impacts of the program on New Zealand workers and employers: there appears to have been little displacement of New Zealand workers, and new data shows RSE workers to be more productive than local labor, and that workers appear to gain productivity as they return for subsequent seasons. The program has also benefitted the migrants participating in the program, with increases in per capita incomes, expenditure, savings, and subjective well-being, with some evidence of small positive spillover benefits to their communities in the form of public goods. Taken together, this evidence suggests that the RSE program is largely living up to its promise of a “triple win” for migrants, their sending countries in the Pacific, and for New Zealand, and that it is one of the most successful development interventions for which rigorous evidence exists. As such, both development and immigration policy can benefit from learning the lessons of this program.
The purported intent and the realities of European codevelopment schemes and diaspora initiatives are critically reviewed. The historical evolution of codevelopment from the early, voluntary return programs to aiding development in exchange for less migration is traced, leading to an inventory of the various strategies adopted since the turn of the millennium. Attempts to encourage remittances to pass through formal channels, to redirect these private transfers toward productive investments, and to facilitate skill and knowledge transfers are also evaluated.
Michael A. Clemens
The most basic economic theory suggests that rising incomes in developing countries will deter emigration from those countries, an idea that captivates policymakers in international aid and trade diplomacy. A lengthy literature and recent data suggest something quite different: that over the course of a “mobility transition”, emigration generally rises with economic development until countries reach upper-middle income, and only thereafter falls. This note quantifies the shape of the mobility transition in every decade since 1960. It then briefly surveys 45 years of research, which has yielded six classes of theory to explain the mobility transition and numerous tests of its existence and characteristics in both macro- and micro-level data. The note concludes by suggesting five questions that require further study.
Florence Kondylis and Valerie Mueller
In recent years, conflicts and natural disasters have displaced scores of people. Yet, the economic consequences of displacement are seldom studied. Identification challenges pose important limitations in drawing causal inference in this field of study. In light of recent advances in the literature, we propose a conceptual framework and discuss plausible identification strategies. Next, we review the relevant literature and set the conceptual framework in motion to analyze the impact of conflict in Bosnia Herzegovina and floods in Pakistan on household welfare. We conclude by reviewing and proposing policy actions that could effectively expose and address constraints faced by displaced populations at their destination.
Robert A. Margo
This chapter briefly surveys the principal issues in the economic history of international migration. As a way of framing this vast, unruly topic, I view the issues through the lens of the nation receiving the majority of immigrants historically – the United States prior to World War One. I begin by discussing the economic theory of migration, followed by the history of population movement to the New World from 1500 to 1800. Next, I recount the “Age of Mass Migration”, framed around the important project by Timothy Hatton and Jeffrey G. Williamson. The essay concludes with a discussion of the WWI-era legislation that “closed the door” to the United States and the internal migration of African-Americans that it prompted.
This chapter summarizes the emerging empirical literature on the effect of emigration on wages in a source country. The evidence can be broadly divided into four categories: (i) case studies, (ii) simulation exercises, (iii) studies using regional variation and finally, (iv) national level studies. Overall, a substantial body of the evidence points towards a strong and positive relationship between emigration and source country wages. Importantly, the effect has been found to be statistically and economically significant. The estimates from the national-level studies across a wide range of countries range from two percent to five and a half percent increase in wages owing to a 10 percent emigrant supply shock. The impact of emigration on wages has important implications in source countries, for wage inequality across schooling groups and for national income distribution between labor and other factors.
Ana María Ibáñez
In the past two decades, forced displacement has grown significantly. This rising trend is the result of the onset or persistence of civil wars, tighter borders to prevent flows of refugees, and protracted violence against civilians. This chapter reviews the literature on the causes of forced displacement. It discusses those aspects of civil conflict that may produce forced displacement, the role of economic factors, the deliberate decisions of armed actors to target civilians, and the decisions of people and households to migrate amid conflict. Evidence suggests that violence is strongly correlated with forced displacement, yet economic factors also play a non-negligible role. Despite facing intense violence, people and households have agency. In deciding whether to migrate, they weigh the net benefits of the various alternatives. Because the literature is nascent, the potential for future research is great.
Christopher R. Parsons and L. Alan Winters
In this chapter we survey the voluminous literature on migration affecting trade and the somewhat less developed literature linking aid flows to migration. We aim to guide the reader through the two literatures, highlighting key contributions and identifying important lines of enquiry. Simmering below the surface of both literatures is the issue of causation. Given the macroeconomic nature of the global flows under examination and the numerous direct and indirect links that potentially exist between them, establishing causality proves particularly problematic and is thus an issue that we pay close attention to throughout. The evidence from the trade and migration literature, in which causality has been more concretely established, suggests an almost ubiquitous positive effect of migration on trade, although exceptions exist; this suggests that richer data might be required to delve even deeper into the trade-migration nexus. While policymakers often wish that aid reduced migration, the literature suggests the opposite - namely that aid increases emigration. The mechanism has yet to be resolutely established in this literature, however, which suggests a need for future research.