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We apply the prescriptions of the resource-based perspective to develop a model of entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation. We propose that opportunity evaluation decision policies are constructed as future oriented, cognitive representations of ‘what will be’, assuming one were to exploit the opportunity under evaluation. These cognitive representations incorporate both (1) an evaluation of the existing resource endowments (already under the control of the venture), which may be employed to exploit the opportunity under evaluation, and at the same time (2) an assessment of the future, wealth generating resources that must be marshalled (and subsequently under the control of the venture) in order to exploit the opportunity under evaluation.

To sense and adapt to uncertainty by leveraging prior entrepreneurial knowledge is a critical ability. However, for many individuals, prior entrepreneurial knowledge is absent or underdeveloped. We investigate the ability of individuals without prior entrepreneurial knowledge to effectively adapt decision policies in response to feedback, while performing an entrepreneurial task. We model 10,000 “entrepreneurial decisions” nested within 217 individuals, to demonstrate how differences in metacognitive ability and feedback type promote (or alternatively impede) cognitive adaptability. Our findings suggest insights into the interplay between knowledge, learning, and cognition that are generalizable to activities and actions central to the entrepreneurial process.