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EU–Russian Relations and the Ukraine Crisis

Nicholas R. Smith

This book assesses the competitive and contentious EU–Russia relationship in relation to Ukraine from 2010 to 2013, focusing on the important areas of trade, energy and security. The key issue explored is whether this relationship played any meaningful role in the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine since late 2013.
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Index

Nicholas R. Smith

AA (Association Agreement) 1, 73, 74, 75, 99, 101, 129
domestic factors 11214
objectives 10810, 114
post-crisis implementation 1312, 141
power perceptions 11112
role identity 11011
Algeria, gas supply 79, 80, 81
Altai gas pipeline project 138
Ambrosio, T. 105, 115, 116
Armenia 45, 66, 133
Association Agenda 107, 108, 111
Azerbaijan 45, 92, 115
Belarus 45, 47, 63, 64, 65, 91, 115
gas supply 79, 89, 118
Berkut 129
Berryman, J. 6, 46, 105, 119, 121
Bildt, C. 112
Boyko, Y. 90, 99
Bressand, A. 6, 20, 45
BRICS 37, 42
Brooks, S.G. 5, 36, 37
Bulgaria, gas supply 81, 86, 91, 92
Casier, T. 7, 27, 29, 51, 79, 84, 93, 107, 108, 112, 115, 125
CES (Common Economic Space) 656, 67
Checkel, J.T. 13, 14, 15, 16
China 35, 37, 39, 41
trade relations 51, 62, 63, 79, 1334, 138, 139
CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) 64
CISFTA (Commonwealth of Independent States Free Trade Area) 133
Cold War II, see New Cold War
Colour Revolution 46, 63, 105, 115
‘Common Strategy’ (1999) 4
competitiveness 5, 11
in energy relations 98102
evaluation of 289, 30
post-crisis assessment 14950, 1512
in security relations 1237, 145
theoretical issues 12, 15, 16, 212
in trade relations 725
constructivism 67, 12
criticism of 1516
and EU foreign policy 13
and Russian foreign policy 1415
Copenhagen Criteria 114
Crimea annexation 129, 142, 143
Customs Union, see EACU
Cyprus 141, 142
Czech Republic 53, 59, 81, 141
DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement Offer) 53, 546, 1089, 114
domestic factors 5960, 61
objectives and strength 6061
post-crisis relations 1315
power perceptions 579, 60, 61
role identity 567, 61
Debaltseve (Ukraine) 131
democracy
EU promotion 60, 723, 10615
illiberal, in Ukraine 1234
sovereign, Russian promotion 11516
DG Energy officials, policy perceptions 84, 85, 86, 87
DG Trade officials, policy perceptions
energy 84
security 112, 113
trade 578, 60
diplomatic power 34
distribution of 423
see also economic power; energy power; military power; soft power
Directive 2003/55/EC (natural gas) 82
Directive 2004/67/EC (natural gas) 82
Directive 2009/73/EC (natural gas) 83
domestic factors 14, 17, 267
and energy policies 867, 957
post-crisis assessment 1489
and trade policies 5960, 61, 6971
Donaldson, R.H. 14, 45, 46, 70
Donbass region conflict 13031, 142, 153, 155, 157
Dragneva, R. 7, 51, 62, 63, 64, 67, 91, 117, 125
EACU (Eurasian Customs Union) 8, 61, 645, 67, 117, 121, 123, 125
EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union) 64, 667, 11719, 122
domestic factors 6971
objectives and strength 712
and post-crisis relations 1323
power perceptions 689
role identity 678
EaP (Eastern Partnership) 45, 47, 53, 54, 68, 1067, 108, 113, 117
economic power 33
distribution of 4041
see also diplomatic power; energy power; military power; soft power
ECSC (European Coal and Steel Community) 3
EEAS (European External Action Service) 5, 20, 42, 113
energy policy perceptions 85
security policy perceptions 111, 112
trade policy perceptions 578, 60
Energy Community 98, 99, 100
domestic factors 867
objectives and strength 878
post-crisis situation 136
power perceptions 846
regulations 823
role identity 834
Ukraine accession 81
Energy Policy for Europe, An (European Commission) 84
energy power 334
distribution of 412
see also diplomatic power; economic power; military power; soft power
energy relations 8
competitiveness 98102, 145, 1512
compromise scenario 1534
EU–Ukraine 7988
historical context 789
post-crisis 13640
Russia–Ukraine 8898, 118
Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period up to 2030956
ENP (European Neighbourhood Policy) 45, 47, 52, 105, 108, 113, 120, 151
democracy promotion 1067
EU foreign policy 56
comparison with Russia 1921
competitiveness, post-crisis 14950
eastward expansion 445
energy, competitiveness 98102, 145
energy, historical context 789
energy, post-crisis 13640
energy, relations with Ukraine 7988
Finlandisation scenario 1589
New Cold War scenario 1567
and power distribution 36, 3844
sanctions on Russia 130, 132, 147
security, competitiveness 1237
security, compromise scenario 1535
security, democracy promotion 10615
security, historical context 1046
security, post-crisis 14045
theories 1213
trade, competitiveness 725
trade, historical context 5052
trade, post-crisis 1316
trade, relations with Ukraine 5261
EuroMaidan movement 1, 1289, 141
European Council 54, 57, 73, 823, 130, 132
and domestic constraints 59, 113
and Russian integration 34
and security policy 109, 110
European Energy Union 1367
FAC (Foreign Affairs Council) 57, 109, 110, 111, 148
FDI, and power distribution 40
Finlandisation scenario 1579
Forsberg, T. 7, 39, 51, 132, 144
France 43, 44, 52, 59, 78, 113, 142
economic power 40
energy power 41
military power 39
trade relations 62, 63, 86
Füle, Š. 56, 61, 111
gas supply, see energy relations
Gawrich, A. 7, 27, 105, 108, 123
Gazprom 85, 89, 93, 100, 101, 137, 138
influence as a domestic actor 957, 121
and the Nord Stream project 912
pricing dispute 81, 136
GDP, and power distribution 3940
Georgia 45, 92, 115
military intervention in 6, 46, 116
Germany 36, 43, 44, 52, 78, 113
economic power 40
gas supply 79, 86, 88, 89, 91, 92, 95, 137, 139
military power 39
trade relations 41, 53, 59, 63
Glazyev, S. 70, 118
Greece 132, 141, 142
gas supply 81, 137, 138
Haukkala, H. 3, 4, 7, 36, 39, 43, 60, 121, 141, 144
Hopf, T. 23, 4, 14, 119
Howorth, J. 5, 6, 20
Hrushevskoho Street riots 129
human rights promotion 60, 109
Hungary 53, 59, 132, 136, 137, 138, 141
identity, see role identity
institutionalism 12
intergovernmentalism 12
International Relations
and competition 212
and power 7, 325
theories 1215, 1719
international system 1314
and neoclassical realism 1718, 24
and shift in polarity 5, 21, 358, 43, 151
Italy 52, 53, 62, 63, 79, 89, 132, 141
Juneau, T. 24, 28, 33
Kaczmarski, M. 70, 121, 122
Kazakhstan 63, 64, 65
Kharkiv Accords 9092, 118
domestic factors 957
objectives and strength 978
power perceptions 945
role identity 934
Kissinger, H.A. 17, 18, 19
Kuchma, L. 47, 52, 72, 99
Kuzio, T. 27, 47, 73, 105
Kyrgyzstan 66, 115, 133
Larrabee, F.S. 27, 116, 117
Lavrov, S. 4, 68, 69, 71, 95, 117, 120, 121
Layne, C. 5, 35, 36, 37, 38
liberalism 12, 15
Lo, B. 14, 96, 105
Luhansk and Donetsk conflicts 130, 131, 142, 149
Lukashenko, A. 115
Lukashevich, A. 69
Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Kiev, Independence Square) 129
Malmström, C. 1312
Mankoff, J. 4, 96, 122
Medvedev, D. 91, 94, 96, 122
Melnykovska, I. 91, 989, 118
Merkel, A. 131
MH17 tragedy 130, 148
military power 33
distribution of 3840
see also diplomatic power; economic power; energy power; soft power
Miller, A. 94, 96
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Russia) 68, 69, 71, 96, 121, 133
Minsk agreements 13031, 132, 142
Mogherini, F. 141
Moldova 5, 45, 47
Moravcsik, A. 13, 15, 36
Morgenthau, H.J. 17, 25, 33
Moshes, A. 69, 118, 119
MOU (‘Memorandum of Understanding’) 80
Nabucco pipeline 86, 92, 95
Naftogaz 81, 89, 136, 137, 139
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) 4
military power 39
New Cold War scenario 1557
and security relations 105, 141, 1423, 144, 153
neoclassical realism 67, 1617, 145
comparative issues 1921
and the international system 1718
and the role of individuals 1819
Netherlands 63, 79, 132
New Cold War 1, 9, 1557
Nogee, J.L. 14, 45, 46, 70
Nord Stream pipeline project 79, 81, 90, 912, 93, 95, 96
Nord Stream II 137, 139, 140
Norway 41, 79, 80, 86
Nye, J.S. 33, 34, 40
Obama, B. 143
Oettinger, G. 812, 85, 86
Orange Revolution 63, 72, 99, 111, 115, 123
and security policy 1057
Party of the Regions 73, 105, 116
PCA (Partnership and Cooperation Agreement) 3, 52, 54
Pirani, S. 81, 8990, 92, 96
Poland 113, 132
gas supply 87, 136, 138
trade relations 53, 59, 60
polarity of international systems 5, 21
Europe, geopolitical settings 447
and power distribution 434
shift to multipolarity 358
‘Politburo-Central Committee’ 70
Popescu, N. 51, 64, 67, 69, 70, 71, 113, 117, 123
Poroshenko, P. 130, 131, 133, 134, 138, 141, 143, 144, 148
Posen, B.P. 5, 37, 38
power
conceptualisation 323
key measurements 335
power distribution 7
diplomatic power 423
economic power 4041
energy power 412
military power 3840
and neoclassical realism 17, 22, 24
polarity 5, 21, 358, 434
soft power 43
Power of Siberia pipeline project 138
power perceptions 256
in energy policy 846, 945
post-crisis assessment 1478
in security policy 11112, 12021
in trade policy 579, 60, 61, 689
Putin, V. 1, 6, 46, 147
energy policy 90, 934, 967
post-crisis domestic constraints 1489
regime promotion 117, 120, 1212
trade policy 64, 67, 69, 70
realism, and EU foreign policy 1213;
see also neoclassical realism; structural realism
Regime Promotion Policy 11618
domestic factors 1212
objectives and malleability 1223
power perceptions 12021
role identity 11920
Regulation (EC) 715/2009 (natural gas) 83
Regulation (EC) 1775/2005 (natural gas) 823
role identity 3, 6
and constructivism 15
in energy policies 834, 934
and foreign policy formation 245
and New Cold War scenario 156
post-crisis assessment 1456
and security compromise scenario 154
in security policies 11011, 11920
in trade policies 567, 61, 678
Rose, G. 17, 18, 19, 25
Russia Today (RT) 43
Russian foreign policy 1, 6
competitiveness, post-crisis assessment 14950
cooling of EU relations 4
Crimea annexation 129
energy, competitiveness 98102, 145
energy, historical context 789
energy, post-crisis 13740
energy, relations with Ukraine 8898
Finlandisation scenario 15860
New Cold War scenario 1567
and power distribution 36, 3844
regional trends 457
security, competitiveness 1237
security, compromise scenario 1535
security, historical context 1046
security, post-crisis 1415
security, regime promotion 11523
theories 1315
trade, competitiveness 725
trade, historical context 5052
trade, post-crisis 1326
trade, relations with Ukraine 6172
Russo-Georgia War 105
sanctions on Russia 130, 132, 133, 147, 148, 158, 159
Schweller, R.L. 16, 19, 24, 145
security relations 89
and competitiveness 1237, 145, 152
compromise scenario 1535
EU democracy promotion 10615
historical context 1046
post-crisis 14045
Russian regime promotion 11523
Sevastopol lease 91, 97
Sikorski, R. 59, 112, 113
Simão, L. 5, 44, 122
Slovakia 59, 141
gas supply 81, 86, 136, 137, 138
Smith, M.E. 13, 43, 45
soft power 5, 34, 37, 111, 113
distribution of 43
see also diplomatic power; economic power; energy power; military power
South Stream pipeline project 86, 90, 91, 92, 94, 95, 137
structural realism 12, 16, 21, 35
and Russian foreign policy 1314, 15
see also neoclassical realism
Syria 143
‘take or pay’ contracts 89, 93, 101, 137
Taliaferro, J.W. 18, 24, 25, 26
Thorun, C. 6, 13, 14, 15
Toje, A. 12, 16, 20, 40, 148
trade relations 8
competitiveness 725, 151
compromise scenario 153
EU–Ukraine 5261
historical context 5052
post-crisis 1316
and power distribution 4041
Russia–Ukraine 6171, 118
Treaty of Lisbon 5, 86, 148
Tsygankov, A.P. 4, 6, 7, 15, 36, 43, 45, 67, 70, 93, 121
Turkey
gas supply 62, 79, 89, 138
power distribution 39, 40, 44
Turkish Stream 137
Tusk, D. 87, 137
Tymoshenko, Y. 73, 90, 107, 109, 116
Ukraine
crisis 1, 9, 12831
energy, competitiveness 98102
energy, EU relations 7988
energy, post-crisis 13640
energy, Russian relations 8898
Finlandisation scenario 15760
influence of foreign policy 27
multi-vector foreign policy 478
New Cold War scenario 1557
security, and EU democracy promotion 10615
security, and Russian regime promotion 11523
security, competitiveness 1237
security, compromise scenario 1535
security, post-crisis 14045
trade, competitiveness 724
trade, EU relations 5161
trade, post-crisis 1316
trade, Russian relations 512, 6172
Ukraine–Russia gas dispute (2009) 81
Ukrainian–Russian action plan 129
United Kingdom 24, 113, 132
power distribution 39, 40, 41
United Nations (UN) 34
United States 157, 158, 159
power distribution 5, 34, 357, 39, 41, 44
security issues 141, 1424, 147
trade relations 51
Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhgorod pipeline 78, 88
Vilnius Summit 74, 129, 141, 148
Wade, R.H. 5, 37, 38
Walt, S.M. 34, 36, 147
Waltz, K.N. 17, 18, 21, 32, 35
Wohlforth, W.C. 5, 16, 17, 19, 35, 36, 37
Wolczuk, K. 7, 51, 62, 63, 64, 67, 91, 117, 125
WTO, accession to 52, 54, 55, 62, 65, 70
Yanukovych, V.
balancing policy 48, 724, 100, 1245, 146
removal of 129
Russian support 1, 91, 105, 11617, 141
Yelisieiev, K. 124
Yeltsin, B. 3, 4
Youngs, R. 42, 81, 113
Yushchenko, V. 72, 91, 99, 105, 107, 116
Zakaria, F. 5, 16, 26, 28, 37