Trade and Openness During the Great Depression and the Great Recession
Chapter 4: What Drives Deglobalization?
Discusses drivers of deglobalization: populism, income inequality, trade policy preferences and provides an empirical analysis of the covariates of the world trade collapse and the ensuing phase of deglobalization in the Great Depression and the Great Recession. The econometric analysis supports the mainstream analysis of the recent world trade collapse and also shows the relevance of this explanation for the 1930s: the demand shock and the composition effect are highly significant. The econometric analysis also shows that the political system is a highly relevant and significant co-determinant of the extent of deglobalization, but her an important difference exists between the 1930s and the 2000s. Currently deglobalization originates more in democracies whereas in the 1930s autocracies where the drivers of deglobalization.
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